The Bank of England is signalling it could raise interest rates again this year if energy costs stay elevated following the Iran situation. For CFOs, this isn’t background noise—it’s a trigger for immediate action on cash flow, debt strategy, and capital allocation. ## The rate risk is real Economists and City analysts agree: energy price shocks from geopolitical disruption could push inflation back up. The BoE won’t tolerate persistent above-target inflation. A rate rise sounds abstract until you realise the cost. A 0.5% hike on £10m of floating-rate debt costs you £50k a year. On £50m, it’s a quarter of a million. The math gets painful fast. But there’s a window to act. The BoE hasn’t moved yet. Your rate locks, hedges, and refinancing windows are still open. ## What you need to do this week **Review your debt maturity profile.** Pull up your borrowing schedule. How much floats? How much is fixed, and until when? If you’ve got £20m+ floating and rates refresh in the next 6-12 months, you’re exposed. Spread the maturity wall—don’t let everything reprice at once. **Lock in medium-term debt now.** If you can fix 3- or 5-year rates today, do it. Waiting six months hoping rates fall is speculation. Fix what you can at reasonable spreads. A small improvement beats paying more later. **Revisit your financing policy.** Does your floating-rate cap still make sense? If rates are drifting up, your fixed/floating ratio should shift toward fixed. Update it now, before pressure forces reactive moves. **Test your covenants.** If your debt has EBITDA leverage or interest cover covenants, model a 50bp or 75bp rate rise. Can you still stay compliant? If it’s tight, call your lenders now. Don’t surprise them later. ## The longer view **Build a treasury roadmap.** You need to know when each debt tranche resets, what hedges are in place, and your refinancing schedule for the next 12-24 months. Create a one-page dashboard and update it monthly. Run scenarios for 4%, 5%, and 5.5% base rates. Lenders respect CFOs who think ahead. **Check your margin cushion.** If debt costs rise sharply, can your business absorb it? A rising-rate environment crushes thin-margin businesses while high-margin operators stay untouchable. Know where you sit. If you’re vulnerable, tighten costs or push pricing while you still have leverage. **Rethink growth plans.** Every pound borrowed now costs more to service. If you’re planning acquisitions or capex, your hurdle rates just jumped. Returns that worked at 3% base rates look dodgy at 5%. This isn’t paralysis. It’s choosing winners over maybes. Focus on cash-generative deals only. ## The timing is now Rates aren’t rising today, but the BoE’s signal is clear, and geopolitics move fast. Waiting until the first rate decision is reactive. Waiting until rates are clearly rising? Too late—you’re locked out. Act this quarter. Fix medium-term debt, tighten floating-rate exposure, update your treasury roadmap. Most CFOs will wait. Don’t be most. We’ll likely see a BoE decision by mid-year. If energy costs ease, rates hold. If not, expect 50bp hikes and more. Talk to your lenders, your advisers, your board. Paint the scenario. Show your plan. The CFOs who move in the next 60 days sleep better when rates actually rise. The window is open. Close it on your terms. — **Need a second opinion on your debt strategy or rate exposure?** Get in touch. I work with CFOs and FDs on treasury planning, refinancing, and rate cycles. Let’s make sure you’re ahead of this, not caught by it.